The Kansas City Chiefs are staring down a postseason void they haven’t faced in over a decade. Their 28-31 defeat to the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, didn’t just drop their record to 6-6 — it shattered the illusion that this team could coast to another AFC title. Now, with just six games left and a three-game deficit behind the Denver Broncos in the AFC West, the Chiefs’ path to the playoffs looks less like a highway and more like a narrow mountain trail in a snowstorm.
What Went Wrong?
The loss to Dallas wasn’t an anomaly. It was the latest in a string of gut-punch defeats that have defined this season. The Chiefs lost to the Buffalo Bills in Week 4, fell to the Jacksonville Jaguars in October, and were outplayed at home by Denver just days before Thanksgiving. Each loss chips away at tiebreaker advantages they can’t afford to lose. Their head-to-head record against current playoff contenders is already tilted against them — a fatal flaw in a conference where one win can mean the difference between a first-round bye and home watching parties.
And yet, the offense still looks dangerous. Patrick Mahomes is throwing touchdowns. Travis Kelce is still finding seams in defenses. But the defense? It’s leaking. In the last four games, they’ve allowed an average of 29.5 points. The run defense, once a strength, now ranks 24th in the league. It’s not just talent — it’s discipline. Missed tackles. Late penalties. Poor situational awareness. The same team that won Super Bowl LVIII now looks like one that’s running on fumes.
The Crucial Homestand: Texans and Chargers
There’s still a sliver of hope — and it starts at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs must beat the Houston Texans (6-5) on December 7 and the Los Angeles Chargers (7-4) on December 14. Both games are at home. Both are winnable. But neither is guaranteed.
The Texans, led by rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, are playing with house money. They’ve won three of their last four, including a statement win over the Colts. The Chargers? They’re hungry. Justin Herbert is healthy. Mike Williams is back. And they’ve already beaten the Chiefs this season — a loss that looms large in tiebreaker calculations. Lose either game, and the Chiefs’ playoff probability drops below 10%.
“It’s not about luck anymore,” said an anonymous veteran Chiefs linebacker to Arrowhead Pride on November 28. “It’s about proving we still belong. If we don’t win these two, we’re just playing for pride — and that’s not enough for this organization.”
The Rest of the Schedule: A Minefield
Even if they win both home games, the road doesn’t get easier. Week 16 brings a trip to Nashville to face the 1-10 Tennessee Titans — a team that’s terrible, but also dangerous when playing for draft position. Then comes the Christmas Eve showdown: Arrowhead Stadium vs. Denver Broncos. A loss here ends any realistic chance. A win? It sets up a do-or-die finale against the Las Vegas Raiders on January 4.
That final game? It’s not just about winning. It’s about hoping the Broncos lose to the Raiders or the Bengals. Or the Ravens. Or anyone. The Chiefs’ fate now depends on outcomes they can’t control.
Why This Matters Beyond the Playoffs
This isn’t just about missed postseason glory. It’s about legacy. Andy Reid is 65. Patrick Mahomes is 29. This could be their last best shot together. The Chiefs have made the playoffs nine straight years. That streak is in jeopardy. If they miss out, it won’t just be a blip — it’ll be a reckoning. A sign that the dynasty’s momentum has stalled. That the roster, once stacked with elite talent, is aging faster than the front office anticipated.
And then there’s the fanbase. Arrowhead is the loudest stadium in football. But silence? That’s louder. The chants of “MVP!” could turn to murmurs of “What went wrong?”
What’s Next?
The next 14 days decide everything. If the Chiefs beat Houston and Los Angeles, they’ll be alive — barely. If they lose one? The playoffs are over. The NFL’s playoff probability models give them less than a 12% chance of making it even if they win both. That’s not a hope. That’s a prayer.
Coaches are saying all the right things: “One game at a time.” “Focus on the next opponent.” But inside the locker room, the tension is palpable. Players are asking each other: “Is this it?”
The answer won’t come from stats or standings. It’ll come on December 7, when the crowd at Arrowhead roars for the first time — not in celebration, but in desperation.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can the Chiefs still make the playoffs with a 6-6 record?
Technically, yes — but it’s extremely unlikely. To qualify, they’d need to win at least five of their final six games, including victories over Houston and Los Angeles, while hoping multiple teams ahead of them collapse. Their current playoff probability, per NFL analytics models, stands at just 11.3%. They also trail the Broncos by three games and have lost head-to-head matchups to key wild-card contenders like Buffalo and Jacksonville, making tiebreakers nearly impossible to overcome.
Why is the upcoming game against the Houston Texans so critical?
The Texans are 6-5 and playing with confidence, having won three of their last four games. A Chiefs loss here would drop them to 6-7 and likely eliminate any chance of catching the AFC’s wild-card leaders. More importantly, it would be their fourth loss in five home games — a troubling trend for a team that used to dominate Arrowhead. Winning this game keeps their playoff math alive; losing it makes the rest of the season a formality.
How do tiebreakers affect the Chiefs’ chances?
Tiebreakers are the Chiefs’ biggest obstacle. They’ve already lost to the Bills, Jaguars, and Chargers this season — all teams currently in the wild-card conversation. That means even if they finish tied in record with one of them, they’d lose the head-to-head tiebreaker. With only two wild-card spots available, and the AFC stacked with 7-5+ teams, the Chiefs can’t afford to lose tiebreakers — and right now, they’ve lost nearly all of them.
What’s the significance of the December 25 game against the Broncos?
That Christmas Eve matchup isn’t just symbolic — it’s existential. A win would keep the Chiefs alive, but a loss would mathematically eliminate them from the AFC West and likely the playoffs. The Broncos are 9-2, and if they win, they’ll be 10-2. The Chiefs would need to win all remaining games and hope Denver loses two of their last three — a scenario with less than 3% probability. It’s the final, brutal checkpoint before the season ends.
Has a defending AFC champion ever missed the playoffs the next season?
Yes — but rarely. The last time a defending conference champion missed the playoffs the following year was the 2015 New England Patriots, who went 12-4 in 2014 and 11-5 in 2015 — but still missed the postseason due to tiebreakers. Before that, you have to go back to the 2007 New York Giants, who won Super Bowl XLII and missed the playoffs in 2008. The Chiefs’ 2025 season could become the most shocking example since the Brady-Belichick era began.
What’s the most likely outcome for the Chiefs this season?
The most likely outcome is a 9-8 finish — good enough for third in the AFC West but not enough for a wild-card spot. They’ll likely beat Tennessee and Las Vegas, split with Houston and LA, and lose to Denver. That’s four wins in six games — a respectable record, but not a playoff one. It’ll be a quiet offseason for Kansas City, the first in 10 years, with questions swirling about roster changes, coaching adjustments, and whether this era of dominance is truly over.
